From vegnews.com
By Charlotte Pointing
While dairy alternatives surge toward a multi-billion-dollar future, plant-based meat sales continue to decline. Here’s why experts think the categories are moving in different directions
At the time, Niccol said the move was about “embracing all the ways our customers enjoy their Starbucks.” But the CEO likely also understood that dairy-free milks are big business, and charging extra for them was likely only pushing customers away.
Starbucks isn’t alone. Several major chains, including Dunkin’ and Peet’s Coffee, have eliminated dairy-free surcharges in recent years. In grocery stores, too, customers can now choose from shelves stacked with alternative milk options. Where there was once perhaps a choice between cow’s milk and a lonely soy option, there is now a growing array of oat, nut, and even corn milk available.
There’s no doubt the dairy alternatives market is thriving. By 2033, Grand View Research predicts the industry will surge from its 2025 value of $36 billion to nearly $96 billion. Fortune Business Insights is even more optimistic, estimating the market was worth nearly $42 billion in 2026 and will exceed $118 billion by 2034. In the US alone, Grand View Research estimates the US dairy alternatives market could surpass $20 billion by 2033.
Plant-based meat, in contrast, is trailing behind. Per the Good Food Institute, SPINS data shows plant-based meat and seafood sales are declining in the US. In 2025, dollar sales fell by 10 percent, while unit sales dropped by 11 percent.
According to data from Circana, dairy alternatives account for 21 percent of Europe’s entire plant-based food market, while plant-based meat holds just four percent.
So, why are dairy-free options proving so popular?
According to experts, the answer is relatively simple: alternative milks have become part of many consumers’ daily routines in a way plant-based meats have not. A latte, for example, remains fundamentally the same product—just with a different milk.
“The fact that plant-based milk can be used in everyday products people are already familiar with is likely to play a significant role,” said Lorena Savani of EIT Food to Dairy Reporter.
It also helps that, unlike many plant-based meat products, which often have lengthy ingredient lists, dairy-free milks are relatively easy for consumers to understand. The clue is often in the name: they come from oats or almonds.
Many market research firms also point to demand from lactose-intolerant consumers as a major driver of the dairy-free milk market. “The rising prevalence of dairy allergies and lactose intolerance among the US population fuels the dairy alternatives market,” notes Grand View Research. The firm also cites the growing number of consumers adopting plant-based diets as another key factor.
All hope is not lost for plant-based meat, though. Experts remain optimistic that, with the right approach, the category can still catch up. But it likely needs to become simpler, cheaper, and easier to fit into everyday routines before it can rival the success of dairy-free milk.
“Continued progress on taste and affordability, alongside broader, more compelling messaging about the benefits of incorporating more plant-based foods into diets, can drive greater consumption among existing consumers and attract new ones,” the Good Food Institute said in a recent report analysing plant-based meat and seafood sales.
“This underscores the opportunity brands and retailers have to improve products and value, while the industry works together to communicate the benefits of plant-based foods,” it continues.
